Steelers' Mike Tomlin Likely To Get Fired Without A Playoff Win In Next 2 Seasons: 'I'd Say He's Gone'

The Pittsburgh Steelers have enjoyed varying degrees of success with Head Coach Mike Tomlin at the helm. The team won the Super Bowl in his second season and returned to the championship game two years later. Tomlin has never had a losing season, but hasn't gotten a postseason victory since the team won two games in the 2016 season before falling to the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship. Team President Art Rooney II made it clear in the early stages of the 2024 offseason that he's tired of the lack of postseason success. If Tomlin can't find a way to win in January within the next two seasons, he might be out of a job. 

Ray Fittipaldo of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette hosted his weekly chat on the publication's website and fielded a couple of questions about Tomlin's job security. He outlined that Tomlin will be seeking a new employer if the team doesn't get a playoff win by 2026.

"Highly doubtful," he wrote to a reader asking if Tomlin would be back without a playoff win by the start of the 2026 season. "Next two years, and I'd say he's gone."

Tomlin has had a highly successful tenure as the head coach of the team. He's only missed the playoffs in six of his 17 seasons coaching the team. At a certain point though, the non-losing seasons argument becomes moot with the lack of playoff success. Pittsburgh prides itself on its championship pedigree, and not coming close to a Super Bowl appearance since 2016 isn't going to cut it anymore. 

Pittsburgh made a historic change to the quarterback room for the 2024 season by not bringing back any of the three signal-callers who played games for them in 2023. First, the team released Mitch Trubisky. Then they acquired Russell Wilson and, subsequently, traded Kenny Pickett to the Philadelphia Eagles. The team then acquired Justin Fields in a low-cost move with the Chicago Bears to get a backup with upside.

While Wilson has played some of his worst football since being traded to the Denver Broncos, the 2023 season was a slight resurgence. He threw for 3,070 yards in 15 games with 26 touchdowns. He's no longer a perennial Pro Bowl candidate, but showed enough in 2023 to prove he's still a capable quarterback.

Pittsburgh's eyes were opened to what marginally better quarterback play can do for an offense when Mason Rudolph replaced Trubisky after he faltered against the Patriots, Arizona Cardinals, and Indianapolis Colts. Rudolph rattled off wins against the Cincinnati Bengals, Seattle Seahawks, and Baltimore Ravens. Rudolph threw for 716 yards and three touchdowns in consecutive wins that helped Pittsburgh sneak into the playoffs in 2023. 

Pittsburgh is betting that with new Offensive Coordinator Arthur Smith's run-heavy scheme that focuses on deep passes from play-action, they can replicate some of the factors that helped Wilson succeed in Seattle. He doesn't need to be an All-Pro or even a Pro Bowler, just better than the play that Pickett and Trubisky have given the team in the past two seasons. 

Steelers Options For A New Head Coach In 2026

It's almost impossible to predict who will be a hot coaching candidate two seasons in advance. If things go well with the Smith experiment, he could be a potential candidate to take over for Tomlin. He failed largely in his first tenure as a head coach with the Atlanta Falcons, but perhaps learning from a veteran like Tomlin could give him the chops to take over. 

While Smith seems like the most logical choice in-house to take over for Tomlin, the organization's history suggests he will not get the job. After Bill Cowher stepped away following the end of the 2006 season, the Steelers had some strong internal candidates for the job in Russ Grimm and Ken Whisenhunt. Instead, they opted to hire the young, up-and-coming, hot-shot former defensive coordinator of the Minnesota Vikings. When the legendary Chuck Noll retired after the 1991 season, Pittsburgh hired a 35-year-old Cowher away from his job with the Kansas City Chiefs as defensive coordinator.     

The team may not necessarily try to hire the next young defensive genius as Tomlin's successor, but history suggests that's the direction they'll likely take. They might deviate from tradition and hire an up-and-coming offensive expert, given the current trend in the league. However, considering the team's value for tradition, it's more likely that they will stick with it.

Do you agree with Fittipaldo that Tomlin could be gone without a playoff win in the next two seasons?